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Old 27-03-2020, 02:10 PM   #21
Japo
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Originally Posted by Smiling Spectre View Post
While I disagree with twillight about "no real danger", I cannot help to notice that number there quite alike to the common cold. Or flu. Except obvious exclusion of elder population that, it seems, have much worse consequences with it. Just as Italy shown, unfortunately. Still, I think too, that treating it as "global pandemy" is wrong - you need to be extremely cautious, if you are over 60, but that's it. Current self-inducing depression can be much worse on the long run.

Japo, while I agree that total quarantine could be the solution of the problem, I doubt it's truly possible. And as my friends tells me, USA, for example, don't understand the urgency, so it's all minuses without any plusses. *shrug* I dunno. We'll see.
Covid causes pneumonia in most severe cases, not just old people, while pneumonia is very rare in most flus. Even if severe cases of covid are no more than 20% of the total in average. The quantitative difference isn't small, and even what looks like a small difference causes a huge difference in deaths and heath when multiplied by the total population.

Still by now it looks like a world-wide containment is not going to be accomplished or attempted. Several countries (China, Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, etc) are containing it successfully, and in my opinion they've proven that even the economic cost of doing it was less than the cost of letting it spread, seeing what's happening in the rest of the world. But they, and any other country that decides to contain, will have to keep their borders shut against Western Europe and many other countries for a very long time.
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