The result of crafting the coal into one gift is random, it may well become a full free game, but there are higher chances for it to become just a coupon. Not to mention that each coal is a chance to win the big prize, if you waste 7 coals on a coupon you will lose 7 chances to win the big prize.
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Don't think about the probabilities. The smallest chance can take us a long way forward. It's not like we have anything else to lose.
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