So an overview of the plots:
The probabilities of seeing each of the plots is as follows:
40% "Main" plots
15% "One-liner" plots
41% "Resource" plots
4% Queen Catherine's daughters plot
Main plots:
Each of the main plots are equally likely. There are 18 of them. Some of them start with a wait time, meaning that by the time you see them, you're already locked into that plot. It also means that if the usual time for a plot comes and goes without a plot starting (the first one starts on May 24, 1312), then you have one of these delayed plots. The 18 main plots are:
Arinseault
Mortain (wait 60 days)
Chamord (wait 60 days)
Catherine's debt
Teuton (wait 40 days)
Denmark (wait 60 days)
Peasant grievances (wait 65 days)
Annonay
Laval barracks (wait 60 days)
Duke of Compagne (wait 60 days)
Castile (wait 60 days)
Roland (wait 60 days)
Chassaine
Mercurato
Officious-looking clerk
Clouseu
Discontented
Etienne
One-liner plots:
These are just humorous anecdotes or random events that give you a few gold or takes a few gold, etc. There are 52 of them.
Resource plots:
There seems to be some sort of check to not give these plots unless you have enough resources. Thus, if these plots are unavailable, the plot script goes back and chooses another. These plots basically take resources and give happiness. There are 13 of them. They are:
Illness ("terrible plague has hit the village")
Plague ("archer complains of shooting pains in his stomach")
Locust ("swarm of locusts is attacking our crops")
Termites ("termites have invaded our lumber supply")
Drought ("serious drought has plagued the village")
Mining accident ("mine tunnels collapsed")
Killer bees ("swarm of killer bees is attacking our people")
Explosion ("explosion at the foundry")
Weapons ("Sir Gunny")
Camouflage ("Sara Thimble")
Dowser ("Madame Zelda")
Genetic Engineer ("Dr. Snodgrass")
Fertilizer ("Sir Vincent")
Queen Catherine's daughters:
There are separate plots for each of the factions (Valois, Anjou, Burgundy, and Aragon). I'm not sure yet how they differ. Albion cannot have this plot because Albion is married already to Edna.
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