Here's the deal on Yellowstone, as well as I understand it: Yes, the whole area is one big volcanic caldera and is thus geologically unstable. It has erupted cataclysmically three times, as far as we can tell: 2.1 million years ago, 1.3 million years ago, and 640,000 years ago. These numbers lead some people to speculate that another eruption is due at any time. Here's what the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory says about that:
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Massive caldera-forming eruptions, though the most potentially devastating of Yellowstone’s hazards, are extremely rare—only three have occurred in the past several million years. U.S. Geological Survey, University of Utah, and National Park Service scientists with the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) see no evidence that another such cataclysmic eruption will occur at Yellowstone in the foreseeable future. Recurrence intervals of these events are neither regular nor predictable.
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Basically, you can't use statistics about complex geological events in the past to predict those in the future. If you want to know more,
here is the official Yellowstone Volcano Observatory site.